sdi debate

what is sdi
Reagan speech, lasers, nuclear lasers, smart rocks, particle beams
rail guns

It's now an engineering question.

layers

how good is good enough

my history
	1970 abm.  Jastrow request.  Parnas and Redell and Nelson.

Computer aspects
	The proposals have been refuted before being made.
	Doesn't need either AI or automatic verification,
although both may help.

What fraction of delays, disasters and cost overruns come from
programming difficulties?  Someone could study this objectively,
but neither side seems inclined to do so.

Soviet model
	It really is an evil empire, but we must negotiate with it.
Reagan can keep two ideas in mind.

I've just been there, and some important changes, but also
some important things haven't changed, e.g. disinformation
about the U.S.  AIDS, Jonestown, Nixon resignation, Gandhi
assassination, Samantha Smith, U.S. responsibility for Baltic
demonstrations protesting Soviet-German pact.

I'm very hopeful about the Soviet Union, but
it's a long way in the present direction to a stable position, and there could
be reversions to an extremely aggressive Politburo.

The smart guys who can tell us what the Soviets will do have
been wrong before.  Reagan has proved to be right about the
Pershings and cruise missiles (or else lucky), and the people
who said the Soviets would just increase their forces were
clearly wrong, and these are some of the same people who have
been telling us what the Soviets will do in response to SDI.

Maybe the Soviets will accept a U.S. offer to share SDI technology.

U.S. model
	Our leaders for the last 40 years have been trying to defend
us against what they perceived as dangers from the Soviet Union.  A
variety of approaches have been tried and none have led to nuclear
war.  I don't believe that the U.S. has missed major opportunities
to do a lot better, except that we probably could have won in Vietnam
and that would have saved a lot of Indochinese lives.  We also might
have been able to save Khrushchev, and that might have been worthwhile,
although neither proposition is very likely.

This is in contrast to the view that the U.S. has been trying to conquer
the world.

Model of SDI politics

	Continuation of partisanship.  The same people are on the committees.
physics is politics by other means

bombast - babble about war criminals, credulousness to Soviet propaganda

politically motivated wishful thinking

Advice
	Do the research and see if there is something worth deploying.
	Consider whether Graham is right that a preliminary system
should be deployed promptly.
	Scientists should help figure out how to make SDI work rather
than how to beat it.

The country will probably survive even if it doesn't take my advice.
It always has.

Second thoughts:

1. I should have known that I would be quoted as agreeing with
the "evil empire" characterization without mentioning the qualifications
I added.

2. I should have emphasized the vision of Reagan's speech and that the
chances of realizing it are better than the opponents propose.  Perhaps
a quote from Dyson would help for some audiences.  Connect this better
with the evidence that strongly stated Soviet positions can be reversed.

3. Connect the vision of Reagan's speech with the mingy and carping
attituded the physicists have taken.  An SDI system can make large
nuclear weapons reduction agreements feasible, because the verification
requirements would be greatly reduced.

4. Mention the freedom of research issue and the "chilling effect"
of the pledge.